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Vision 2020
past is prologue
Aug. 23, 2021
Clinton and Biden Bookend the Era of the Swing Voter Differences in how the two men approached campaigning and governing, despite their similar ideologies, reflect a massive shift in the U.S. electorate.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Aug. 11, 2021
Raffensperger Struggles to Get Back His MAGA Street Cred Unlike Brian Kemp, Raffensperger doesn’t have the political capital or luck in opponents to survive a Trumpian purge with right-wing posturing.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
July 27, 2021
Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal Wave Lindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
By Ed Kilgore
covid-19 vaccine
July 21, 2021
What If Republicans Were Anti-Lockdown, Anti-Mask, and Pro-Vaxx? Tommy Tuberville suggests the best way to erode vaccine hesitancy is to give Trump credit for those shots in the arm. That may be sad but true.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
July 21, 2021
Has Trump Spoiled the GOP for More Rational Leaders? If Trump doesn’t run in 2024, other Republican presidential contenders will have a hard time rivaling his unique demagogic appeal.
By Ed Kilgore
election coup
July 13, 2021
Did Trump Really Claim Victory on Election Night on a Whim? The idea of declaring victory based only on the in-person vote was telegraphed for months. Now, Trump insiders claim it was somehow impulsive.
By Ed Kilgore
polarization
July 8, 2021
We Are Two Nations, Divisible While Americans claim to want bipartisanship, our differences are clearly real and deep-seated. Embracing this is far healthier than denying it.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 30, 2021
New Data Shows How Biden Won, Where Trump Gained in 2020 A Pew analysis shows that Biden’s suburban boom was real, the gender gap shrank, and Trump’s boost among Latinos was larger than previously known.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
June 30, 2021
Will Ranked-Choice Voting Help or Hurt Lisa Murkowski? The veteran maverick Republican will have to fight off a Trump-endorsed conservative and a Democrat-backed independent if she runs for a fourth term.
By Ed Kilgore
voting rights
June 25, 2021
Justice Department Sues to Stop Georgia Voting Law With Republicans filibustering voting-rights legislation in Congress, the Justice Department is using litigation to go after Georgia’s notorious law.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
June 22, 2021
Will Young and Minority Voters Save Democrats in 2022? With or without some help from Donald Trump, Democrats need to keep the voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020 engaged.
By Ed Kilgore
donald trump
June 16, 2021
Could Trump Become Speaker of the House? This bizarre scenario is technically possible, but fantasies about Trump returning to the White House via the Speakership are extremely far-fetched.
By Ed Kilgore
2021 elections
June 15, 2021
Virginia Is in for a Close, Expensive Governor’s Race Terry McAuliffe has an edge, as Virginia has been trending blue. But the “businessman outsider” Glenn Youngkin has the money to keep it tight.
By Ed Kilgore
Election ‘Audit’ Fever Spreads Beyond Arizona From New Hampshire to Wisconsin and even California, recounts are being used to supposedly vindicate Trump and justify voter suppression.
By Ed Kilgore
Is Presidential Popularity Now All About Partisanship? Biden’s job-approval ratings are even steadier than Trump’s, suggesting a president’s party may be more important than his actions. It’s a scary idea.
By Ed Kilgore
Georgia Republicans See Disastrous Election Cycle As Something to Brag About In their deluded minds, they believe losing Georgia to Biden and the Senate to Democrats were victories stolen by their own secretary of state.
By Ed Kilgore
Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky Business It’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s GOP Enemies Try 3 Strategies for Survival Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and Brian Kemp exhibit different ways Republican politicians are dealing with the Boss’s disdain.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing Off It remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
By Ed Kilgore
voting by mail
Apr. 30, 2021
Making Voting More Convenient May Help Democrats After All Census data shows that Democratic-leaning younger voters benefited from more flexible voting arrangements in 2020.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterm
Apr. 28, 2021
Loeffler Begs for Trump’s Attention by Attacking Raffensperger The former senator has called for a ridiculous “investigation” of the GOP secretary of state who wouldn’t back Trump’s election coup.
By Ed Kilgore
Democrats Are Shooting for the Moon in 2021, and That’s Okay The usual choice between getting things done and holding on to power is no choice at all for Democrats right now.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 mdterms
Apr. 27, 2021
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 26, 2021
Arizona Republicans Want to Keep Recounting 2020 Vote Until Trump Wins A bizarre post-postelection audit ordered by the Arizona state senate and conducted by a MAGA-adjacent firm shows 2020 may never end for Trump fans.
By Ed Kilgore
The Fateful Question of How Latinos Vote Going Forward Trump and his party over-performed with Latino voters in 2020. It’s important for both parties to figure whether that was a fluke or a trend.
By Ed Kilgore
georgia election law
Apr. 20, 2021
Trump Says Georgia Election Law Is ‘Far Too Weak’ The former president’s message to Republicans is that using election laws to screw over the opposition isn’t just acceptable – it’s mandatory.
By Ed Kilgore
political strategy
Apr. 18, 2021
Should Democrats Resurrect the 50-State Strategy? Long-shot lower-level candidates may help turn out the vote for up-ticket races, but the value of that remains limited.
By Ed Kilgore
georgia election law
Apr. 16, 2021
Can Suppressing Votes Save Brian Kemp? Kemp is using Georgia’s new election law to heal a breach with Trump-loving conservatives but so far has drawn only a gadfly primary opponent.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 15, 2021
Yes, Geographical Polarization Was a Big Deal in 2016 and 2020 New data shows that the suburban swings to the left and rural swings to the right are consistent with the intuitive trends in the last two elections.
By Ed Kilgore
McConnell Howls About Court-packing Just As Pelosi Nixes It It’s a good example of how smears of the opposing party can run abruptly into countervailing reality.
By Ed Kilgore
Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic Support Biden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
By Ed Kilgore
Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too? Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
By Ed Kilgore
2024 presidential election
Apr. 12, 2021
Nikki Haley Says She’ll Back Trump If He Runs in 2024 The GOP’s shrewdest presidential hopeful has quickly abandoned her earlier criticism of Trump and gotten back in line.
By Ed Kilgore
Iowa and New Hampshire Won’t Be Knocked Out of First Despite constant complaints, the difficulty of changing the primary and caucus calendar will likely keep the early states in place for 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump and Rubio, Best of Frenemies Rubio seems as tormented as ever by the man who rolled over him five years ago.
By Ed Kilgore
capitol riot
Apr. 7, 2021
It’s Time to Fix the Law That Led to the Capitol Riot An obscure 1887 law intended to resolve disputed presidential elections instead gave Trump and his supporters one last chance to overturn the results.
By Ed Kilgore
georgia voting law
Apr. 1, 2021
Georgia Republicans Working Hard to Sabotage a 2022 Comeback Georgia’s GOP could be upbeat heading toward the midterms. But the voting-law debacle and a Trump purge could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
By Ed Kilgore
Raffensperger’s Support for Georgia’s Voter-Suppression Law Won’t Save Him Georgia’s secretary of state blasphemed Trump, and that’s all that matters to his fellow Republicans.
By Ed Kilgore
republican party
Mar. 20, 2021
Conservative George W. Bush Is Now Too Liberal for His Party George W. and Jeb Bush once defined not just Republicanism, but movement conservatism. Both have changed decisively after Trump.
By Ed Kilgore
Today’s Gridlock Is Like a 19th-Century Nightmare We’re experiencing the instability and close partisan competition of the Gilded Age along with the big differences and fury of the 1850s.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 hindsight
Mar. 3, 2021
David Shor on Why Trump Was Good for the GOP — and How Dems Can Win in 2022 The data scientist shares his latest theories on why Democrats lost Hispanic support in 2020 and what the party must do to avoid disaster in 2022.
By Eric Levitz
Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land? It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s Future Agenda: Suppress the Vote and Purge the RINOs His speech at CPAC didn’t promise a candidacy in 2024, but did suggest he’d fight anyone he does not endorse.
By Ed Kilgore
voting rights
Feb. 25, 2021
Republicans Return to Old Voter-Suppression Playbook Trump shifted the focus to phony vote-by-mail fraud claims, but Republicans tried to limit all kinds of voting pre-2020 — and they’re at it again.
By Ed Kilgore
republican party
Feb. 24, 2021
Agonized Georgia Republicans Long for Herschel Walker to Run for Senate A battered and deeply divided state party bent on suppressing Black votes could use a Trump-friendly Black sports legend.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Feb. 23, 2021
Straight-Ticket Voting Took Another Big Leap in 2020 The days of congressional candidates running far ahead of the national ticket are all but over.
By Ed Kilgore
impeachment trial
Feb. 11, 2021
Trump’s Conduct on January 6 Was Not Just Wrong: It Was Stupid Trump went nuclear at precisely the moment when it no longer made any sense.
By Ed Kilgore
Despite Iowa’s Caucus Meltdown, the Old System May Survive A year ago, it seemed likely that the debacle would cost Iowa its privileged spot. But now plans for 2024 are murky, and the status quo could prevail.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Big Mo Matters to Biden Past presidents — including Barack Obama — who got off to a slow or clumsy start often paid dearly for it. Biden wants to avoid that fate.
By Ed Kilgore
biden inauguration
Jan. 21, 2021
Biden’s Unity Plea Is About Strategy, Not Surrender Like other recent presidents, Joe Biden is attempting to divide or pressure the opposition. If the bid fails, he can easily turn to other strategies.
By Ed Kilgore
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