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Vision 2024
early and often
May 29, 2023
The Contradiction at the Heart of DeSantis 2024 The Florida governor wants Republicans to know he is more electable and more extreme than Donald Trump.
By Eric Levitz
electoral autopsies
May 19, 2023
The Return of the Emerging Democratic Majority? In the most highly contested midterm races, millennials and zoomers turned out in even higher numbers than they did in 2018.
By Eric Levitz
Why the GOP Can’t Moderate On Abortion Pill Bans As public opinion moves left on abortion, the pro-life movement’s ambitions move ever rightward.
By Eric Levitz
the national interest
Mar. 27, 2023
What Ron DeSantis Can’t Fake Trump’s legal problems reveal an organic connection to the base that his rival is trying but failing to match.
By Jonathan Chait
early and often
Jan. 29, 2023
Trump’s First 2024 Pitch: It’s Me or World War III The former president had some things to say at his first two official campaign events over the weekend.
By Chas Danner
the power trip
Dec. 23, 2022
Donald Trump’s Final Campaign Inside his sad, lonely, thirsty, broken, basically pretend run for reelection. (Which isn’t to say he can’t win.)
By Olivia Nuzzi
Joe Biden’s Actually Not-at-All-Bad Year 2022 could have gone so much worse for Biden. 2024 — and all the steps he must take to show he’s still electable — looms next.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Aug. 29, 2022
Please Shut Up About Liz Cheney or Larry Hogan in 2024 The media should quit indulging what is almost disinformation about their White House aspirations.
By Ed Kilgore
early and often
Aug. 22, 2022
What Would a Divided Congress Do After the Midterms? If the midterms produce a Republican House and a Democratic Senate, expect more noise than legislation for the rest of Biden’s term.
By Ed Kilgore
early and often
Aug. 8, 2022
The Biden Age Is Hitting Its Stride The debate over how old the president is and whether he should run again is a distraction from how much he has already accomplished.
By Errol Louis
the inside game
Aug. 1, 2022
The Kamala Conundrum The Democrats’ leader-in-waiting is unpopular, derided by donors, and here to stay.
By Gabriel Debenedetti
vision 2024
July 28, 2022
The Presidential-Election Landscape Keeps Getting Tougher for Democrats Dems should get used to needing a sizable national popular vote in order to win an Electoral College skewed against them.
By Ed Kilgore
donald trump
July 28, 2022
Trump to America: Next Time, No More Mr. Nice Guy Trump’s first speech in Washington since he left office was full of authoritarian menace.
By Ed Kilgore
Biden ’24 Is in Real Trouble Now If the president doesn’t turn things around, we may hear a lot of retirement as well as birthday wishes when he turns 80.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
July 14, 2022
Glenn Youngkin 2024 Rumors Are Pure Silliness Given too much credit for his 2021 gubernatorial win, the Virginia governor has a long road to go before he’s a serious presidential candidate.
By Ed Kilgore
the power trip
July 14, 2022
Donald Trump on 2024: ‘I’ve Already Made That Decision’ In an interview with New York, the former president says the only question left in his mind is when he’ll announce.
By Olivia Nuzzi
vision 2024
July 11, 2022
Are Democrats Stuck With Joe Biden in 2024? If the president is stubborn about running, there may be no realistic way for unhappy Democrats to get rid of him without a risky internal fight.
By Ed Kilgore
early and often
July 8, 2022
An Early Trump 2024 Announcement Could Screw Over the GOP, Again In two Georgia Senate runoffs that were crucial to the GOP in early 2021, Trump thought only of himself. There’s no reason to think he has changed.
By Ed Kilgore
early and often
May 25, 2022
President Mike Pence Would Be Worse Than Trump The former vice-president is attempting to bolster his chances in 2024, but Democrats would be wise to beware any attempt to rehabilitate his image.
By Ross Barkan
Democrats Quietly Search for an Alternative to Biden in 2024 Inside the 2024 soul-searching that’s happening in every corner of the Democratic Party — except the White House.
By Gabriel Debenedetti
2022 midterms
Feb. 10, 2022
Governors Could Be Key to Trump’s Next Coup Attempt Trump allies are poised to win in several crucial 2022 races, and election-reform efforts may overlook the threat posed by a rogue governor.
By Ed Kilgore
DeSantis Could Be Haunted by Florida’s ‘Generous’ Abortion Ban The governor is backing a 15-week abortion ban, which Republicans are billing as a compromise. But his strategy could anger the party’s extremists.
By Ed Kilgore
Nikki Haley’s Shameless Walk on the Trump Tightrope Her startling call for Biden to “step down” was clearly an attempt to atone for crossing Trump. But she may need her dignity someday.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Jan. 19, 2022
Biden’s Approval Rating Is Low But Still Higher Than Trump’s With better skill than he’s shown lately and a bit of luck, Biden can mitigate 2022 midterm losses and bounce back in 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Jan. 12, 2022
A Joe Biden–Liz Cheney 2024 Ticket Won’t Save America Thomas Friedman cites an Israeli precedent for his call for a coalition of national salvation. It’s not an apt comparison and probably wouldn’t work.
By Ed Kilgore
The Sad, Unconvincing Case for Pence 2024 Despite talk of Pence being the “shadow front-runner” for the GOP nomination, he still has no constituency for a presidential campaign.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Biden Finally Went After Trump on January 6 It was a no-brainer for a commemoration of the insurrection Trump incited, but the bigger question is whether Biden keeps at it.
By Ed Kilgore
authoritarianism
Jan. 3, 2022
Trump Endorses Viktor Orbán, His Hungarian Role Model It’s an unusual move that may signal what Trump hopes to achieve for himself.
By Ed Kilgore
Will a Doomed Voting-Rights Push Really Help Biden? Democrats’ “supercharged” drive to pass voting-rights legislation, which will likely fail, could discourage base voters more than sober realism.
By Ed Kilgore
Are Democrats Just Repeating Obama’s First Year? There are some striking similarities between the party’s current problems and what they faced 12 years ago. But Obama did manage to get reelected.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Goes Global With Big Lie Litmus Test Foreign leaders like former Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu are being cast as enemies for recognizing the 2020 election results.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Dec. 12, 2021
Republicans Are Too Afraid of Trump to Fix Election Laws Prominent liberals and conservatives favor reform to a statute that helped produce chaos on January 6. But Congress won’t budge.
By Ed Kilgore
If Roe Is Reversed, Democrats Need to Be Ready At a time when their party has convinced itself to avoid social issues, they should prepare for a culture-war battle they can win.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 26, 2021
Republicans Can’t Bet on Finding Perfectly Trumpy Candidates The GOP thinks candidates who embrace Trump without going full MAGA are the key to winning the midterms. Good luck finding them.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Nov. 25, 2021
Cheer Up, Democrats! You’ve Had It Worse Than This. The Democratic Party has a lot of problems, but it’s faced similarly sticky situations before and survived.
By Ed Kilgore
For Pete’s Sake, Stop the Presidential Buzz About Buttigieg The secretary of Transportation has plenty of fish to fry without constant speculation that antagonizes Kamala Harris supporters to no good end.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Nov. 15, 2021
If Biden Retires in 2024, Kamala Harris Will Be the Democratic Nominee For all the negative punditry about the veep lately, don’t underestimate all the advantages she’ll have if Biden gives way to her.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 15, 2021
Beto O’Rourke Is Running for Governor in Texas The former Democratic phenom must overcome past questions to challenge a strong but vulnerable Republican incumbent in a red state turning purple.
By Ed Kilgore
Sununu Passes on Senate Race, Giving Democrats a Break The popular New Hampshire governor was a key part of the formula for a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2022. Now it gets tougher for the GOP.
By Ed Kilgore
6 Takeaways From Glenn Youngkin’s Win in Virginia Early data suggests the Republican governor-elect benefited from higher turnout in pro-GOP areas and among white working-class voters in particular.
By Ed Kilgore
2021 elections
Nov. 3, 2021
Democrats Would Only Lose Again by Decimating Biden’s Agenda The worst thing Democrats in Congress can do after Tuesday’s election losses is give up their fleeting opportunity to make historic accomplishments.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 2, 2021
Raffensperger Fears Future Election Violence, Can’t Stick Around to Thwart It The 45th president’s least favorite Republican official is fighting very high odds against his renomination by the Trumpy Georgia GOP.
By Ed Kilgore
Most Republicans Already Say They Can’t Lose in 2024 Unless the Vote Is Rigged It’s bad enough that Republicans believe Trump’s Big Lie. It’s worse that they believe the bigger lie that he couldn’t — and can’t — lose.
By Ed Kilgore
January 6 Committee May Finally Spur Electoral Count Act Fix If House Democrats move to fix the flawed procedures for confirming elections, Republicans may be compelled to go along or devise their own reforms.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Can’t Lose in the Virginia Governor’s Race The 45th president can spin both a Democratic and a Republican win as reinforcing his indispensability. And the same will be true in 2022.
By Ed Kilgore
For Mike Pence, Running a Doomed Presidential Race Is a Living The former veep doesn’t have to be a plausible presidential candidate to stay on the gravy train.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Says Republicans Must Solve the Big Lie or Their Voters Won’t Vote It’s unclear how Trump’s phony fraud incidents can be solved by a party that opposes federal election legislation. But it keeps the focus on himself.
By Ed Kilgore
Audit Fever Is Now Spreading to States Trump Easily Won Trump supporters are skeptical about the integrity of our elections, and they’re starting to devour their own.
By Ed Kilgore
Kamala Harris Shouldn’t Have to Save the 2024 Election If Congress fixes the Electoral Count Act now, it could reduce the odds of the vice president needing to assert powers she may not really have.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Sept. 29, 2021
Biden May Bounce Back Like Other Presidents Have History shows that presidents usually get reelected unless they are unlucky, or, like Donald Trump, they work hard at alienating voters.
By Ed Kilgore
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